2015-08-06

China May Spend Another 1.3% of GDP on Infrastructure

Quartz: China’s stock market stimulus has cost over $1 trillion so far
Reuters: China agency seeking additional 2 trillion yuan to prop up markets: Bloomberg
Back in January: China Said to Accelerate $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur GDP

Another 1 trillion yuan may be coming:
SCMP: China to issue 300 billion yuan in bonds to fund huge infrastructure push
China will soon offer 300 billion yuan (HK$374 billion) in bonds to pay for infrastructure work across the nation, a fresh sign the leadership plans to speed up asset investment to buoy slowing growth.

The Agricultural Development Bank of China and China Development Bank, two major policy lenders, will issue the debt, with the central government covering most of the interest payments, according to the Economic Information Daily, a subsidiary of Xinhua.

The bonds are Beijing's first fundraising push for a series of new public works including railways, urban underground pipelines and poverty-alleviation projects. The central government intended to raise 1 trillion yuan through debt issues in three years, the newspaper reported.
That central government spending may be levered up three times:
Gold economist Hong Liang and other reports on the 6th, said China will launch one trillion infrastructure investment, the total investment scale of the New Deal annual increment or brought up to about 0.4% to 1.3% of GDP, much milder than the 2009 stimulus policies.

Considering leverage, special bonds to raise capital can pry 1-3 times the total investment is expected to fund the first batch of bonds to raise or bring investment 3000-9000 yuan. New infrastructure investment or will focus on "insufficient capital stock per capita," the five fields.
iFeng: 中金:中国拟加大刺激基建 年投资增量或至GDP的1.3%

This is a good time to remember Tan Yaling's warning:

...if the only way China can stimulate the economy is through investment, then China's $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves will be exhausted within 5 years.

She says speculation is the greatest threat to China's development and this speculation could exhaust China's reserves. Although China has $3.2 trillion in reserves, it isn't enough to protect it from hot money, not when the global forex market trades $5-6 trillion each day. If there is no long-term strategy to defend the reserves, they could be rapidly exhausted.

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