2016-04-07

Understanding Interplay of Social Mood and Politics in One Chart

In the chart below, the West is still somewhere between number 2 and number 3. The bear market is 8 years old and there still hasn't been an economic crash. The financial crash was aborted in 2009. As a result, polarization has only grown and is still not finished. A victory by Trump, UKIP, PVV, Catalonian independence, etc, would be a sign the cycle is coming to a close. If these parties lose and central bankers are able to keep things going a few more years, polarization will continue and the new center will be even further away from the current mainstream. Imagine Trump is the bottom square in number 5, if things continue for several more years, that could become the center at 3 and the cycle of polarization continues. Right now this is 1960s and 1970s political realignment, if it continues, it shifts to 1920s and 1930s.

Socionomist: Democracy is Under Attack; Will it Survive the Social Mood Decline?
“We’re the first generation to say that voting is worthless,” said a young Spanish woman. A young Indian woman said, “We elect the people’s representatives so they can solve our problems, [but] that is not actually happening. Corruption is ruling our country.” A young Israeli man said, “The political system has abandoned its citizens.”

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