2016-08-08

7-Year Yuan Short

Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors went short the yuan after its first crack in 2008, but was early as the global bailout lifted emerging markets until 2011. The yuan cracked again in late 2011 and into 2012, but wouldn't top until 2014. Today, calling for a large yuan devaluation is still a minority position even if more crowded than before.

Bloomberg: The Seven-Year Short

Hart ended up closing his yuan bear fund a couple of months before the August 2015 drop:
Then, in early 2014, the yuan began weakening. Hart held his breath, hoping to see the epic devaluation he’d long expected. He didn’t have much time left; the China fund, all he had left, was nearing its end. In January 2015, he went so far as to tell clients that a devaluation was imminent. He hoped to raise more money, but there was little uptake. “Mark Hart fatigue,” he says. The fund expired in June 2015 without turning a profit. He hung his head and took the summer off.

...Just how it will end is anyone’s guess, though Hart’s latest fund is scheduled to expire in December. He says that once the yuan weakens dramatically—and he insists it will—he’ll invest in an exchange-traded fund that tracks the nation’s biggest companies. “Even if he doesn’t win on this China trade,” Dallas investor Korenvaes says, “he’s one of the first guys that spotted it, and others came aboard.”
A large bill for gross malinvestment is overdue, but like in every other country from Japan to Italy to the U.S.A., nobody wants to pay it. Those that do pay it, as in some outlier cases like Iceland, quickly return to growth. A devaluation by China not only would set China back on course, but likely force the world to follow. Instead of being thanked, however, China would be blamed. So we wait.

No comments:

Post a Comment