Another Sign This Could Be A Repeat of 2011 and 2014

CNBC: An unusual divergence in commodities is hiding signs of a global slowdown, economist says

The U.S. economy is bounding along but economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan sees evidence of a global slowdown in an unlikely place: Demand for cow hides.

Achuthan, co-founder of Economic Cycle Research Institute, says hides and other non-exchange-traded sensitive industrial materials such as rubber are often the first item on the production line and their price movements are a barometer for economic activity.

"They're super sensitive, they're going to swing and have bigger swings than other things but they're very revealing in terms of direction," Achuthan told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Friday.

...An unusual divergence is occurring in commodities markets is obscuring signs of a global slowdown, says Achuthan. The more closely watched exchange-traded commodities such as oil and copper have spiked on tighter supply from outlier events such as sharp drops in Venezuelan production.

The Austrian school argues slowdowns will start in the higher stages of production. This does not indicate a recession because the signal could reverse, but it is not an unexpected sign as global stimulus peters out.