Germany Going Hard Right: AfD Climbs Above 15pc as Merkel Govt Under Pressure

ZH: The End Of Merkel? German Government In Crisis After Coalition Rebellion Over Immigration

Merkel has survived for many year because she has a raw political ability. I would not bet on her losing.

Long-term however, one has to bet on AfD. They are at 15 percent (poll average) and on the cusp of outpolling the SPD. I think they will achieve tipping point success around 20 percent. At that point, parties will start considering allying with them to stop their ascent.

Social mood is relatively high in Germany. Here's a look at the DAX and adjusted for currency via the Germany ETF (EWG).

The DAX screams"Everything is Awesome!" Even the ETF, which has suffered as the EURUSD declined, is still in record territory. Yet, the story of AfD's rise can be seen in the fact that EWG doesn't leave its 2007 high behind until a decade later in late 2017.

Notice in the polling charts above, AfD almost hit 15 percent during the negative mood of early 2016 that produced Brexit and Trump. This time, instead of a 15 percent ceiling, they have a 15 percent launch pad.

There are two good posts for understanding what is happening. First is this one: This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change In that article I posted this chart:

This chart is an encapsulation of political change across the Western world. A quick summary is that the political establishment in most of the West is left-wing and globalist when viewed from a historical perspective. Most right-wing parties are merely the right-edge of the establishment. (Trump's insurgency was the American right waking up to this reality.)

When social mood turns negative, voters throw out the existing governments. During major downturns in mood, they have revolutions, the last major political revolutions peaking in the decades before and after the 1930s. The U.S. could certainly go left, but because nationalism is far stronger in Europe, the winners there will be nationalists. Smart politicians understand this, which is why: Danish Left Splits Nationalist, Ends 25 Year-Old Agreement. A major left-wing party in Denmark sees the writing on the wall.

In Germany, only the right is nationalist and AfD has a strong hold on issues such as immigration. The poll above shows voters only see three right-wing parties in Germany: CSU, AfD and NPD (and that's effectively two since NPD isn't going to rise much). When social mood turns down, AfD's support will rise. The more nationalist and right-wing politicians in the CSU will rise. There is your future coalition government.

The other post for understanding this: Good Work Merkel

The post isn't long, the whole story is in this picture. East Germany was communist, like Poland and Hungary. Poland and Hungary no longer have left-wingers or globalists with meaningful political power. East Germans will increasingly vote like Poles and Hungarians as social mood deteriorates.

Big political changes are on the way for Europe. Brexit, 5-Star and Lega are the leading edge of a major wave.