Private Investors Cautious on Bonds, Expect Liquidity Squeezes Will Bring Buying Opps

East Money: 债券私募严控信用风险 逆市布局被错杀标的

Since the beginning of this year, credit risk events have occurred frequently and investors have drawn attention. The China Fund Newspaper reporter learned that private bond is generally more cautious at the moment, mainly involving interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds. Private equity believes that after experiencing the release of risk, the market may usher in new opportunities and can lay out some of the targets that were missed in advance.

　Avoid bond credit risk

　　According to statistics, in the first five months of this year, there were a total of 17 default events in the bond market, involving 12 defaulting entities; five new breaching parties, and a total of 35.7 billion yuan in new default bonds. “A large number of credit debt wassuance during the asset shortage in 2015 and 2016 was focused on redemption this year. We adjusted our strategy last year to avoid private companies and industrial bonds with weak external financing capabilities, because if credit contraction occurs, private enterprises may be the first It is impacted, but the top real estate companies have assets such as land, and they may receive external support.” Wang Lin, executive director and investment director of Qianwei Investment, told reporters. Wang Lin also said that there may be pressure in the market in July and August, but the overall credit risk is relatively controllable. Because the issuers who can publicly issue bonds are mostly qualified large-scale enterprises, the overall default rate will not be very high.

　　In the face of more complex markets, private equity investment has also become more refined. Yinye Investment stated that the current investment ideas mainly focus on two points: First, from top to bottom, beware of the outbreak of credit risk, early allocation of medium-to-high-grade bonds; second, from the bottom up, detailed and multi-dimensional vouchers The credit analysis, fine selection of subjects.

　　Mr. Mei Jianyu, president of Junolontai Assets, believes that in the past, investors had arbitrage in doing bonds, and they felt that there was no risk in the city's investment bonds, and the rating of private enterprises was still rising, causing price distortions. "Now that this situation is being corrected, investing in credit bonds must be able to penetrate the main body of issuing bonds. It depends not only on whether the company has made mistakes, but also on the direction of future development. It also needs to study the management, market, price, and production capacity of the company.

Looking for the wrong target

　　Credit contraction in the first half of the year has affected the cash flow of low- and medium-level companies. It has superimposed overseas disturbances, and private equity is relatively cautious in its current practice. It mainly lays interest-rate debts, high-grade credit bonds and other varieties. Zhao Bowen, research director of Blue Stone Asset Management, said that in the short term, he would not choose an overly aggressive trading strategy but rather use a dumbbell-type configuration strategy. In the coming weeks, it will enter corporate taxation and bankingIn the case of semi-annual assessments and other pressures, there is a large probability that the funds will be tightened, and it is difficult for the short-term curve of the yield curve to open up downwards, and it may even flatten upwards. The short-term species will be mainly configured, supplemented by the same certificates of deposit. Every time the rate of return rises or the impact of the event, consider a small portion of the funds allocated to the long-term interest rate bonds, and perform fast-forward and fast-out band operations.

　　Yinye Investment believes that the current interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds have a better allocation value, and each market adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. “Because the market positions in the early stage are highly concentrated on the varieties with high short-term duration (around 1 year), there are technological opportunities and needs for asset allocation structure adjustment. At this stage, investors can choose to increase their returns on the basis of their original positions. Strategies include increasing long-term interest rate debt and extending the long-term credit commitment period to two to three years."

　　The above-mentioned Shanghai Ten Billion Bond Private Equity also stated that it has been a defensive short-term, low-leverage strategy in the near term. Investment companies have relatively short deadlines and very limited time mismatches.

　　Mei Jianyu told reporters that the recent bond allocation biased interest rate debt, but gradually increase the duration of the bond, leverage down. "In terms of the allocation of credit bonds, the checks are very strict. For example, urban investment bonds depend on the financial resources of local governments, the hematopoietic capacity of urban investment companies, and the company's position on the local; other industrial bonds, such as real estate., Will choose leading companies, short duration, no political risk of the company. ”

　　However, there are also some private equity investors who believe that with the release of this round of credit risk, the bond market will bid farewell to the past “city-confidement beliefs” and “listed company beliefs” and credit analysis will truly return to the fundamentals of the company. Although short-term credit spreads have widened and silt levels have fallen, the truly fundamental private corporate bonds will still be recognized by investors.

　　Chairman Jiang Yunfei of the long-term investment said that credit risk is the core contradiction at present, and that freezing is not a cold day. The contradictions accumulated in the expansion cycle over the past 10 years are being continuously released through credit default, and cannot be underestimated in the short term. The impact of credit risk, in particular, cannot underestimate the risk of contagion among various markets such as bonds, stocks and trusts. However, in the medium to long-term, it is a necessary process to break the just-cooked policy. Only by breaking the rules and regulations and removing the invisible guarantees of the creditors can fair competition and survival of the fittest can the market's pricing function be brought into play, and it will be beneficial to the high-quality development of the economy. Firmly look at the slow-moving market for multi-interest bonds, and see more credit market into the real value-investment era, focus on the industrial structure and the core competitiveness of enterprises, and look for opportunities for “sand nuggets”.

　　Zhao Bowen believes that in the coming months, real estate and city investment and other industries may have some credit events in succession, triggering institutional redemptions, triggering the first liquidity debt with the best liquidity to be "killed." Pay close attention, wait for opportunities to "bottom the bottom" configuration with a small number of positions.

　　Wang Lin frankly stated that investment should follow the megatrend to make strategic adjustments. In the short term, short-term and de-leverage strategies should be adopted. Through the internal credit review system and bond library system, bonds should be strictly screened, and risk incomes selected should be relatively high. The bonds with better qualifications will be strengthened. “We pay close attention to the macro economy, especially the changes in the central bank's monetary and regulatory policies. From the fourth quarter to the beginning of next year, the bond market may have opportunities. By that time, we will increase the duration and increase the leverage.”