2020-09-24

Updated: Market Exit Signal Did Not Trigger on Sept 23

Update: The sell signal did not trigger yesterday, the index only reached 5.47 percent. Pay close attention because another day or two of selling in high-yield credit should trigger it. You can check the index every AM yourself at the FRED website.

Have to wait until tomorrow for the final number, but the high-yield spread "market exit signal" may have triggered. I'm basing this on the drop in HYG today. I have the horizontal at 5.50 percent. The signal triggered in:

Sept 1998 - major tech correction

March 2000 - stock market top

November 2007 - stock market top

July 2011 - major correction

Dec 2014 (false)

Aug 2015 (yuan deval, major correction)

March 6, 2020 pandemic panic

Sept 2020 - ???

Posted by at 9:39 AM
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2 comments:

  1. daveSeptember 24, 2020 at 6:46 AM

    Hope you do a follow-up to this article and let us know!

    Awhile ago I loaded up on energy stocks as a contrarian play; I am down some since purchasing but I like the positions, even duds like Exxon! Too much doom and gloom out there in my opinion. As for energy, it seems as if almost every geo=political struggle involves oil, so I figure it must be valuable.

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  2. daveSeptember 24, 2020 at 9:51 AM

    Thanks for the update and chart reference.

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