2020-09-25

Time to Dust of the Shorts List

The Market Exit signal has triggered. I'm not going to sell everything and get short just yet, but my cash is now looking for put options as long as the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread is over 5.50 percent. the alarm bells sound at 7.50 percent, there's not necessarily an imminent move in the market coming, though there could be. It could also be a false signal that reverses. My gut and other charts tell me it isn't false. There is more downside ahead. Update: After going through some charts, I'm taking some mining profits in highly volatile miners (silver) and some low vol ones I don't think will run away from me if I'm wrong. I'm adding some puts. I have about 100% of my trading account hedged. Taking advantage of today's strength. If it gets much stronger into the close, I might be wrong, but thus far the high-yield ETF HYG is still red on the day. It's not confirming today's rally.

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