2020-09-09

Socionomics Alert: Professional Sports Contraction More Likely After Protests

Socionomic theory predicts contraction in sporting leagues during major bear markets. I covered this topic back in May: Socionomics Alert: Sports Contraction. The main threat back in May was a combination of high debt levels and loss of TV revenue amid coronavirs lockdowns. If coronavirus lockdowns returned later in the year or delayed seasons again, it could have pushed the more indebted and less profitable teams to the brink. Luckily for them, coronavirus appears to be on its way out.

Unfortunately, the sports leagues did not heed the phrase "Get Woke, Go Broke." This summer, the major sports leagues injected politics into their seasons, with a resulting crash in fan interest.

NYPost: Public support for sports plummets amid BLM protests, pandemic: survey

More people have a negative view of pro sports than a positive one, as public support for America’s athletics industry plummeted amid the coronavirus pandemic and athletes’ backing of the Black Lives Matter movement, a new survey released Monday reveals.

Americans who have a positive view of sports dropped from 45 percent positive in August 2019 to 30 percent last month, the Gallup poll found.

The number of citizens who had a negative view shot up from 25 percent last year to 40 percent in August 2020.

That’s a shift of 30 points — from a plus 20 percent positive rating to a minus 10 percent negative rating.

During a period of negative mood, mass market business should depoliticize. The best thing for sport would have been positioning itself above the fray. Instead, it made the mistake of picking sides during one of the most contentious periods since the Civil War. Smaller businesses can profit from negative mood by driving customers away from competitors, but most mass market business only faces losses unless they're in the picks and shovels sectors of the unrest, such as social media.

Going back to the polling data, major sports have turned off one-third of their audience at a time when they need TV revenue more than ever because people aren't going to the games. Personally, I used to read sports sites and participate in some fantasy sports leagues. I have cut my sports consumption down to little more than checking the scores. Fantasy football is the most popular and helps drive interest in the NFL. Both of my leagues are effectively on maintenance this year. Both could be eliminated next season. Long-time fans who followed closely for most of their lives are so fed up they're boycotting the season.

Sports leagues have taken years to recover from unpopular strikes and lockouts in the past. This seems more intense, but even if it isn't, the leagues needed years to reover from similar declines in fan support. If the economy and social mood do not cooperate, contraction odds are high and rising.

Update: ‘Sunday Night Football’ Season Debut Viewership Slides To Multi-Year Low; Fox’s Brady Vs Brees GOAT Battle Up From 2019 – Update

Even with the usual ratings gold of Jerry Jones’ team on the field, the NFL and NBC didn’t get that win – at least not in the early numbers. Despite two teams with big national followings, SNF snared a 4.7 in early ratings among adults 18-49 and 14.81 million viewers last night. In numbers certain to change, that’s a fall of 28% in the demo and a hard decline of 23% in sets of eyeballs from the early numbers of the the September 8, 2019 SNF season debut. While the early Nielsen data lacks West Coast numbers — kind of important when you have a team from the Los Angeles market in the mix — his result is going to be hard pill for the NFL and NBC to swallow. To add further context, last year’s opener, a 33-3 pummeling of the Pittsburgh Steelers by then reigning Super Bowl champs the New England Patriots, went on to pull in an audience of 22.2 million on NBC, which was pretty much even with SNF’s 2018 season premiere. That 2019 figure inched up to 22.7 million when digital platform viewing was added in.
Notable that the viewship decline comports with the poll showing roughly one-third of fans swung from a positive to negative view on professional sports.

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