2021-03-25

China Cannot Reverse Fertility Decline

Not with their current policy mix, which stems from a more fundamental political and economic orientation.

Caixin: How Chinese Society Fell Out of Love With Marriage

In 2020, the number fell 12.15 million to 8.13 million. Specifically, the number of first marriages dropped from 23.86 million in 2013 to 13.99 million in 2020, while the number of remarriages increased from 3.08 million to 4.56 million.

...Most parts of China have witnessed a declining marriage rate since 2013. Generally, there is a negative correlation between a region’s GDP growth and marriage rates.

In general, China’s more developed regions, like its coastal provinces, have lower marriage rates than the rest of the country. In 2019, Shanghai, Tianjin and the provinces of Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and Fujian had some of the lowest marriage rates in the country, with Shanghai’s the lowest at 4.1%.

And housing costs:
We knowwhat causes low fertility. It is Western-style progressive capitalism, almost exactly what is embraced by a nominally socialist CCP. China hasn't deviated into wokeism and it pulled back from extremist feminism after going full communist for a time, but otherwise it is converging with Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Take a look at their fertility rates to see where China is headed. Policymakers in the West are retarded by being woke and can't see the obvious correlations in the data or as in China, they don't want to pay the cost because they value things like GDP growth or the number of credentialed women more than higher fertility. Among those who say they genuinely view low fertility as a problem that needs addressing, if they aren't hitting at root causes they aren't seriouos about it. The vast majority of the population doesn't see low fertility as a problem. The one plus for China and other East Asian nations is they at least give their citizens the benefit of low fertility in more open space, less environmental strain and rising wages. In the West, all the benefits are reversed by mass immigration.

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