Dollar Breakout vs Won

The deflation/recession argument is winning in some markets, while the inflation argument (crude oil) is winning in others. On net I remain on the deflation side, with crude as the "show me" asset. Cannot rule out something totally new either, because correlations can break permanently in secular market shifts. For example, maybe demographics catch up with Japan and Europe and we get a world where inflation and the U.S. dollar crossrates rise together. Looking at the won, there are touches of resistance in the Asian Crisis, 2008 financial panic, 2020 pandemic crash and now. An overshoot like in 2008 and 2020 could be coming, or a major breakout. Either way it is short-term bearish if USDKRW goes higher.