The Bear Market Hasn't Started Yet

Bonds haven't really moved yet. The ratio of the Dow to the 30-year bond price is still at the top of the pattern. As I have said elsewhere, the first move of the bear market will erase the Fed's 2020 pump, but that is like a freebie. It's the speculative excess coming out. As I noted last night, credit risk hasn't budged yet. A bear market has started I believe, the top will not be revisted. That said, the "real" bear market hasn't begun yet. The next move in the stock maket might still be a bounce, but the next move down will be the one in which credit risk helps drive the move. HYG slumped hard with stocks this morning and with the indexes close to the correction lows, that leg down could also start at any moment.