Nasdaq is the Walking Dead with Crude Over $100

The two paths before the Federal Reserve are clearer than ever. One path is a repeat of the 1970s on steroids, with 40- and 50-year consolidation patterns completing and breaking out to the upside with stocks at valuations that only have comparisons in the late 1920s and late 2000s. The other path is the Federal Reserve hikes aggressively in the face of higher oil prices, no matter the reason why.

One has to wonder if this wasn't all planned to some extent. Western policy has been perfectly wrong for the past couple of decades, accelerating into the Baizuo admin that does the perfectly wrong thing on almost every issue. Whatever Baizuo claim, they will do the exact opposite. Black Lives Matter? Let's slaughter blacks by defunding the police. Climate change is a threat? Let's flood the economy with inflation to finance consumer purchases from China that are built via expanding coal-fired power plants. Initiate a "dirty" transition to "green" power that will make C02 emissions spike for a decade or more, while also making fuels such as coal more attractive then they've been in 20 years. Push for mass migration of people from low carbon footprint countries to high carbon footprint countries. Pandemic? Let's follow the science! By science they mean whatever stupid idea pops into their head at this moment.

When people lose confidence in their government and their institutions, they start trusting in what they can hold in their hands: gold, oil, copper, wheat.

Crude in euros:

The appropriate technology/growth allocation at this stage, leaving aside any long-term undervalued sleeper stocks you may know about (if it's a name the average investor would recognize, it is probably doomed), is zero.

I do not know if it will be fire or ice, runaway inflation or a deflationary shock as in 2008. The macro evidence points to something like 2008. The charts are much more supportive of a inflation scenario because they have consolidated for 14 years. Either scenario is bad news for most equities. The U.S. Dollar Index may tell the tale. Thus far it also points in a "deflationary" direction.