Now It's A Financial Crisis; Most Important Goal For Investors: Survive

Below is written by Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities' research institute, and researcher Zhu Zhenxin, after sitting through the recent Politburo meeting at Beidaihe.

2015 is the year China is face to face with the financial crisis. In 2009, the government launched a 4 trillion yuan stimulus. In 2012. it rescued the real estate market. In 2014, it used the stock market to rescue the economy. Now, it faces a real financial crisis. After the 626 Earthquake (June 26 market crash) stock market crisis, the Chinese economy is gradually feeling more pressure.

We can help themselves in the past, the future is not the same as we can? We believe that: first, the results may no different, that is to say, the Chinese economy can once again saved the day, because, as a not fully market-oriented economy, China has no reason to market disorder crisis erupted. Second, this process is far from simple imagination, decision-makers must not be taken lightly, because this is not the same. In the past we have sufficient policy space, infrastructure, real estate, export, stock market, you can add one by one lever, but now they have gradually been overdrawn, plus lever next subject seem yet to come. Finally, if you want to save the day, you may need a different extraordinary measures in the past, which may be QE, there may be more daring measures.

For decision-making is, before the various contradictions and dilemmas: to make anti- inflation (pig cycle driven by CPI upward), but also anti-deflation (PPI overcapacity led to downward), both to wide currency, falling interest rates, insurance growth, but also stable currency, stable exchange rate , risk prevention. On the market, although Earthquake has gradually gone, but the alarm is far removed. For investors, under a gentleman does not stand Weiqiang, when the future is unclear, the most important thing is to survive.

iFeng: 政治局会议释放四大信号:与金融危机正面决战

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