Golden Week Confusion: It's Hot and It's Cold

Beijing home sales and prices up solidly in October, following on the recent trend. The article below says sales were up 50% and prices up 16%, but the data set from CREIS disagrees.
Statistics also show that, as of October 6, Beijing existing housing contract has reached 142,900 units, far more than 104,800 units in last year. This continues the September "hot": September's statistics show that Beijing existing housing transaction price continued to rise to reach 35,100 yuan per square meter, compared to August of the average price of 34,200 yuan per square meter, a 2.6% increase.

iFeng: 十一北京楼市均价同比涨16% 商品房签353套

CREIS saw a 10% drop in sales in Beijing.

The first chart is Golden Week sales (through the 6th). Second is September data, all from CREIS. The September data shows the deceleration from August and in the case of the third-tier, contraction.

Land sales recovered in Q3, but mainly due to more valuable plots of land being sold.

Yingshang: 黄金周房地产总结:银十开端成色亮 同比增幅近五成

Sohu has a different spin, with the headline focused on the continued deceleration in the market: 930新政首周:成交同比上涨但不及九月
Although many developers eye-catching in the "golden nine silver ten" fat pushing plate, but "2015 edition 930 New Deal" of the first week of market performance, not as imagined. Now it seems that, compared with last October "National Day", the volume around the property market are at a high level, but the chain of daily trading volume in September there is continued downward trend, and the decline is also large.   China Index Research Institute monitoring of 23 major cities in October 1st to the 7th housing data show that average daily turnover area than in 2014 rose 64.76 percent over the same period; the average daily turnover of the area 19 cities rose.
One reason for a less than optimistic view is the amount of easing in the prior weeks, including the lowering of first-time homebuyer down payments to 25% in most of the country, local easing policies and central bank rate cuts.

Another article at iFeng calls September "sad" (一线城市"金九"黯然 楼市新政助推"银十"发力), but with a turn during Golden Week thanks to policy easing.

1 comment:

  1. So what on god's green earth are you supposed to learn from this hodgepodge of information!!!!!!??????