German Establishment Copies USG, Uses State Police Power Against Political Enemies

WSJ: Germany’s Largest Opposition Party Under Extremism Investigation

Germany’s intelligence agency opened an investigation into the far-right Alternative for Germany as a potential threat to the constitutional order, officials said Wednesday, an unprecedented move at the start of a decisive election year for the country.

The decision marks the latest escalation in the scrutiny of Germany’s largest parliamentary opposition party, whose popularity soared in the wake of the 2015 refugee crisis. The electoral fortunes of the party, known as the AfD, have waned following a string of scandals but it remains popular in some parts of the country.

In 2015 I posteed This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change. Coincidentally, the chart from that article is focused on Germany.

I do not own a crystal ball, I prefer to deal in probabilities. The AfD is now explicitly the opponent of the German establishment. There is no mainstream right-wing party anymore. The option for voters upset with the German ruling class is AfD or the actual extremists in the NPD. The odds of AfD taking power remain low, but the odds of AfD sweeping into total power, with enough votes to form a majority by itself, is rising. The fat tail risk is increasing. That is not a near-term prediction. The window of possibility stretches towards 2040.