Russell 2000 is SPY divided by TLT

The ratio goes up if SPY goes up and/or TLT goes down. It goes down if SPY falls or TLT rises.

I interpret this as RTY being a better expression of the current market. We are in a holding pattern whether we know it or not, determined by which way interest rates move. Interest rates peaked the last time the Federal Reserve started a taper. Now if you think ahead, you'd think...if bonds are going to bottom in November, I want to get short now. But maybe rates aren't going back down, or the market is oblivious. Either way, maybe we meander around until November 3, the day of the next Fed policy statement. With the run-up in energy, I have to assume they will announce a taper then. If rates peak then, it might be time to be 100 percent short.

Also interesting: SPY, QQQ and TLT are trading almost exactly the same since early April. If this relationship keeps up, higher interest rates will sink the stock market.

Everything I'm seeing tells me stocks are going lower, probably a lot lower. I am not sure of when, but "anytime" is my answer today. A breakout in rates (look at the 10-year yield chart) could sink stocks as soon as tomorrow, or some bad news. Clearly the market is in rally mode though, with Bitcoin and crypto showing the animal spirits are thriving. Higher is the path of least resistance at least for the moment. As the days tick down until the November 3rd FOMC meeting, odds that the next move is lower will increase.