2021-10-14

Stagflation Indicators Pushing into Red Zone

There's a bounce underway, but it will be limited by bonds and or commodities. Copper-gold is moving higher, zoomed in on gold-copper below. Bonds have rallied. The inverse gold-copper ratio is very similar to ZB in its movements. Unless this correlation breaks, the potential breakdown in gold-copper (not yet at a new low) heralds a plunge in bond yields. That would unleash stagflationary death spiral in markets because as we saw the past months, investors will panic out of financial assets and into commodities, triggering more capital flight. Back in June 2008 investors were all in on inflation trades and then...poof. If that type of downturn isn't coming, if instead the window closes on a deflationary counter-move, then the 40-year bond bull is over, the yen is toast, the stock market is toast, and all hell is about to break loose incluing ultra-nationalist populism (both right- and left-wing) erupting all over.

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