Bank Credit Reaches Zero Percent Growth

Bank credit was flat over the past year. I indexed the data set to before the pandemic hit and total credit growth has been 4.4 percent since then. Despite all the price increases, credit inflation remains very low. Growth below 5-percent was recessionary at all times prior to 2008. Failure to clear this growth rate would indicate the post-2008 economic trends are still dominant.

No bounce in commerical and industrial loans (as of August).

Total credit growth fell to 5.6 percent growth in Q2 2021. It is possible in the just completed Q3 that growth fell below the 5 percent recessionary line.

Residential real estate loans. No sign of a housing bubble yet, at least not a sustainable one.

Commercial real estate is doing better, but isn't making up for any of the slack in residential mortgages.