2021-10-21

Watching Bellwhethers

No positions on this one, but watching. FedEx is coming up on its earnings gap. If the economy is slowing or slipping into recession, fedex should fail here.
Freeport-McMoRan, still short a bit. Right on the line.
Energy, XLE. Doubts creeping in on this one, but I still don't like the looks of the volume. I do not possess a crystal ball, but one down day on higher volume is going to flip the technicals.
If I'm totally wrong, I'm still not too concerned because I don't foresee the 30-year bond holding up. That's not to say the market can't go insane. Bonds, stocks and commodities could all rise together for awhile, and they'd have to, because the 30-year bond futures are around 0.20 percent away from taking out the October 11 low. It is down 0.40 percent overnight right now, so maybe I wake up to a selloff in bonds and the Nasdaq. MOre ominously for the Fed and the bond bull market, there's a topping pattern than has about 2.5 percent to go. That will fall quickly if oil is starting a run straight to $100 per barrel. If that completes, then a test of the bond bull market's 40-year uptrend coming into play.

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