U.S. Population Growth Set to Crumble

The Sounding Line: Chart: US Population on the Cusp of Shrinking

Longer term UN forecasts have long held that the US population should continue to grow for the foreseeable future, albeit only through immigration, but their estimates have consistently proven too high.

The US is now poised to follow Japan and the Eurozone into population contraction in the coming years. While one can debate the pros and cons of population growth on the environment, the reality is that for an overindebted economy with large unfunded obligations such as ours, it is a massive problem, and a very deflationary one.

Wait until immigration is reformed and illegal aliens deported. And before you say that will be deflationary, if you look at the stats on welfare usage, deporting all non-citizens and green card holders would likely have a large net positive impact on government budgets. It's not so much that the vast majority of immigrants are lazy, it is that the U.S. has an extensive welfare state such that most natives do not realize the extent of it. There are groups that specifically target immigrants and encourage them to sign up for welfare programs, groups that do not bother with middle class Americans. Also, culturally natives are less likely to take advantage of programs based on need because they don't think they need it, whereas in many foreign cultures, exploiting the system for maximum value is standard operating procedure. Negative population growth will relieve strain on the environment, cut carbon emissions and lower real estate prices. Recallign Turchin, the U.S. has been at this point before with extremely high levels of foreigners in the population, extreme wealth gap, stagnating wages, falling living standards and falling life expectancy for natives, and the result was civil war or immigration restrictions. Bet on deflation, and even if the government prints, it'll trigger stagflationary contraction in the economy.