The two next shoes might be SMH and BTC Bitcoin.
UUP tagged its 50-day MA today. I don't think the dollar matters much for the stock market right now, but down would be better for inflation trades and tech weakness, and up better for more general bearishness. I'm going into Monday with guns blazing, but I'm here for the day the market doesn't bounce. There is growing bearish sentiment, but a lot of its is cautious from my reading. Looking for a 10 percent pullback tops. Fearful of the Federal Reserve, jawbone or policy shift. I don't sense much confidence or risk taking on the bearish side. History and support levels say maybe this dip was it. There's a case for a bounce and there have been face-ripper run ups from the support area the Nasdaq bulls defended today. But...if that support doesn't hold...there is nothing but air below. The risk-reward is heavily skewed in favor of bears thanks to VIX remaining suppressed. the 10-year yield held its breakout too. If the Fed opts for dovishness, they will probably ignite crude oil and the 10-year yields, and then the Nasdaq and all the ARKK trash will walk into an empty elevator shaft.
Schedule for Week of May 19, 2024
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The key reports this week are April New and Existing Home Sales.
*----- Monday, May 20th -----*
10:30 AM: *Speech, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson*, *U.S. ...
You need to start thinking of BTC more like a commodity. This is because the Fed is buying stawks, but not commodities (and definitely not BTC, which was created to destroy it).
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