Time to Go Mobile

Exxon is right near its July 2014 all-time high. That was the start of a $75 per barrel slide in oil and the start of the U.S. dollar bull market. The Fed had started tapering in January and would finish three months later in October. If the Fed follows its script, the current taper will end in two months. Last time, the Fed didn't raise rates until December 2015, more than a year after the taper ended. Markets are near certain the Fed will hike rates when the taper ends in March.

Crude oil:

XLE must rally 15 percent to retake its June 2014 all-time high.

This is a great spot for me. If oil and XLE go higher, there will be many bearish setups. If instead inflation is peaking, XLE and other energy/commodity shorts may be some of the better first-half trades.