2022-06-12

Cryptopocalypse Returns and Apocalypse Now for Stocks?

Ethereum tagged the major support line I mentioned yesterday:
BTC also lost support but hasn't taken out the prior low yet.
Back in December 2021 I posted on Solana, a hot crypto that did a 500x from 2020 to 2021. I wrote:
Blue support broken. Take out green and I'm looking for $80, with $50 and $20 lower targets.
June 2022: $20 incoming.
All signs point to an open door for major bearish moves in crypto and stocks. There is one trader out there arguing for temporary bear squeeze though:
He is also looking for SPX to bounce to 4100 by next week possibly, plus an eventual move to 4300 before it goes down tubes. He has been right more often than not. If he's right again, the stock market should either move up overnight or capitulate on Monday or Tuesday, with cryptos following. If he nails this call perfectly, he will achieve legendary status if he doesn't have it already. 

I suspect the biggest risk for his forecast is that the capitulation move hasn't completed and may see far larger drop into Monday and maybe Tuesday. As I wrote yesterday, my pit stop target of $370 on SPY would probably be hit in the next day or two if selling momentum continued into this week, even if he's right about the eventual move this week. I'm open to all scenarios. I think the big money trade, assuming he is correct about capitulation, would be to catch that bottom and ride it back up. If there is more dip first, the rebound will likely be even faster.

Finally, stocks "should" fall here because all these late bulls are realizing they've been wrong all year. Yet, the Johnny-come-latelys selling stocks here are six months behind the curve. The forward looking trade is selling energy stocks because everyone realizes either recession or central bank policy will start lowering energy prices (and eventually prices throughout the economy). Or buying the capitulation dip. Falling energy prices was one of my bear market rally keys, along with a bounce in bonds. If a trifecta unfolds where all three are behaving as I anticipate, I will have confidence to place large leveraged trades. One way or another, this is going to be a crazy week.

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