Must Read: Missouri Market

The market's crash window is open and that's also the conditions in which a bear trap or tradable low will happen. With that context, here's a Rorschach test for bulls and bears: 1-month and 3-month T-bills. According to Countdown to FOMC, the odds of a 75 bps hike are 80 percent and 50 bps is 20 percent as of today, June 30.

The 3-month treasury yield is only pricing in about a quarter point here.

Back in June, the market suddenly priced in 50 more bps in the span of 3 days, coincident with the stock market plunging. My sense is the market could suddenly price it in again. If it doesn't price that hike in, it's possible a market crash would cause a Fed pivot. A potentially bullish (for stocks) condition exists, but it only becomes bullish in fact once the Fed pivots, once the market has the confidence enough to price the pivot in, or after all the selling ahead of a pivot completes. I'm thinking the stock and bond bulls have an edge right here.

The spread between the 3-monnth and 1-month treasury has also been widening. Last time it was this volatile was around the 2008 crisis.

The U.S. 1-month yield is down to 1.06 percent. It is effectively pricing in a 50 bps cut from here. It has been lagging most of the hiking cycle since March by about a quarter point.

The bond market is very much in a Missouri mood. (For foreign readers: Missouri is the Show Me State.)