China's Pension Bust: Number of Localities in Deficit Doubles, Surpluses Quickly Drained

In addition to retraining workers and bailing out zombie firms, the government may need to step in and support pension payments in provinces hit by the slowdown in the industrial economy.
Recently, according to "Nanfang Dushi Bao" reported that the Social Insurance Administration Center Department who issued "China Social Insurance Annual Report 2015" (hereinafter referred to as the report), the report shows, urban workers and rural residents two pension accumulated surplus of nearly 4 trillion yuan.

The report shows that last year the enterprise employees pension fund yields 3.1%, the highest in nearly seven years. Corporate pension fund yields from 2009 to 2014 was 2.2%, respectively, 2.0%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.9%.

At the same time, report data show that since 2012, corporate pension insurance fund accumulated surplus continued to expand, however, may be paid by the number of months in 2012 decreased from 19.7 months to 17.7 months in 2015. Among them, Heilongjiang corporate pension can be paid only one month.
The number of provinces where income matches benefits doubled from three to six in the past year:
Urban enterprise workers pension insurance fund current period "ends meet" a rapid increase in the province by 2014, three in 2015 extended to six, namely: Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Hebei, Shaanxi and Qinghai.
Aside from Qinghai, those provinces are a who's who of rust belt and commodity dependent provinces. Two more provinces have less than 10 months of surplus: Hubei and Tianjin.

Due to China's rapidly aging population, it swung from pension surpluses to requiring reform in only a few years:
Tsinghua University, Employment and Social Security Research Center Director Yang Yan Sui to the "Daily Economic News" reporter, 4 trillion yuan of personal account balances are a lot inside, pay-as-you-go pension system faced challenges with the dependency ratio, within two years transformation of the pension system must be addressed.

Yang Yan Sui said: "When the dependency ratio is 3: 1 the when pension insurance rates can not be lower than 17%, if below 2: 1, everyone would have to bear 25%, the lower the dependency ratio goes the larger and heavier the increase. "
Liaoning's working population is falling and the number of people paying into the system has collapsed along with the economy:
Late last year, the Academy of Social Sciences published "China Pension Development Report 2015" that the number of basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in various provinces continue to maintain growth, but negative growth in the number of workers insured provinces has emerged, in 2014, Liaoning Province ginseng Paul growth rate of -0.38%, the number of workers.

Meanwhile, the contribution insured situation is not optimistic, in 2006 and 2015, the number of enterprise payment sector accounted for the proportion of the number of insured workers declining, falling from 89.98 to 80.3 percent, about one in every five people did not pay.
The good news is this isn't the bad news. Health insurance is even worse:
It is worth noting that, in the health insurance Employee Retirement relatively low as the bigger problem.

Report revealed that as of the end of the country to 288.93 million insured workers basic medical insurance, where the number of service workers to participate in health insurance 213 620 000, accounting for 73.9% of the total number of insured, while the total number of retirees was 75.31 million, accounting for 26.1%. Last year, Medicare Employee Retirement ratio (the number of employees and the number of retirees ratio) of 2.84, the fourth consecutive annual decline.
iFeng: 养老金“入不敷出”省份翻倍 黑龙江只够支撑一个月

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