To suppress the real estate bubble, July 25, where the Vancouver, BC (British Columbia) announced that from August 2, overseas real estate investors will impose a 15% additional housing transfer tax. After the entry into force of new regulations, Zhou Ranbian cold Vancouver property market, a sharp decline in market volume, foreign investors choose to abandon the purchase, instead of paying taxes.The central bank is caught with a no-win situation:
According to the British real estate agency Knight Frank Knight Frank research report, from June 2015 to June 2016, with 34.6% of Vancouver annual increase, prices rose fastest growing cities in the world. Shanghai ranked second, prices rose 22.5%. Guangzhou and Beijing in the same column tracking Knight Frank cities, housing prices were up 8.8% and 6.4%.
There is no doubt that Canadian housing prices, in order to reduce the burden on public buyers, boosting social spending power, extended enterprise profit margins. Any national housing boom, there were not based on sound economic development entity basis. If the cart before the horse, will pay a heavy price.
From an economic deleveraging and stability of the Renminbi considerations, the central bank needs to return to sound monetary policy. But reality environment, in order to prevent corporate debt default and a substantial decline in housing prices, the central bank will need to release liquidity, sustained social ample liquidity. In stabilize the exchange rate and economic underpinning between the central bank is facing a dilemma.The answer then is no, China's market won't pop because it has policy support, even if the government is working to slow price rises. Whether the central bank and credit system also support it remains to be seen. The PBoC can support housing or the yuan, not both.
...Although many industry authority appealed to "squeeze bubble", but in reality, the real estate relating to the common interests of local governments, banks, supporting industries. If house prices fall, on the one hand it would lead to a sharp contraction of local finance, on the other hand will also have a dramatic impact bank asset side. More importantly, the economic fundamentals are unable to improve the environment, the Chinese house prices setback, will induce the RMB exchange rate volatility, which is unbearable pain.
Overall, regardless of the downward pressure on the economy to curb or prevent financial risk, at the necessary time, the central bank may cut interest rates drop quasi shortage. At the same time, the government should make great efforts in the tax level, the only large-scale tax cuts, reduce the burden on enterprises, the real economy in order to improve the environment radically maximize boost market confidence. I believe the government necessarily know this, the key is transferring interests to let go.
iFeng: 温哥华楼市遭遇冰崩 中国楼市大拐点来了？