Turn: Mid-Autumn Sales and Prices Tumble Nationwide

Has the fever broken? A number of articles over the past two days are calling the turn in the housing market in the wake of weak Mid-Autumn Festival sales.


Affected by policy regulation and control, in the first week of September, the transaction area of ​​21 cities monitored by China Index Research Institute decreased by 10.4% mom, and the transaction volume by area of first-tier cities fell by more than 40% mom. Analysts believe that in the next stage, the property market will gradually increase and the purchasing power will be difficult to support the market to continue to rise.

As the final "Golden September and Silver 10" in the real estate market in the year, this year, it was unfavorable. Under the background of strict regulation and control, the once lively scene no longer exists.
People's Daily: 多地新房降价促销是怎么回事?多地新房为什么降价促销
In the mid-autumn holiday of 2018, the property market was flat as usual, and the "Golden Nine" did not exert its strength. According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, two days before the small holiday, 180 new sets of commercial housing were signed in Beijing, and 62 sets of second-hand houses were basically the same as the average level from July to August. Compared with the same period in 2016, 422 sets and 280 sets were down 57% and 78% respectively.

  In addition to Beijing, the real estate market in other cities has also performed flat. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, the number of new residential houses signed in Shenzhen on the first two days of the small holiday was 70 sets and 76 sets respectively, which was basically stable compared with the previous market. In Guangzhou, the first two days of the small holiday signed 1871 sets, which is average. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the "Jinjiu" property market was not available in 2018, and the property market cooling has arrived.

  Zhang Dawei said that after a long period of guidance, buyers have become more rational. Taking Shanghai's property market in September as an example, although the supply has increased significantly, the sales momentum has been further weakened. During the week from September 14 to September 20, the supply of new homes in Shanghai reached 143,203 square meters, an increase of 34.18% from the previous month. However, from the transaction point of view, it was slightly down by 0.94% from the previous week.

  "In August, the property market is nearing the top of the 'top.'" Zhang Bo, chief analyst of the 58 Anju Room Production Research Institute, said that the cooling of the property market has arrived, and the lack of color in the "Golden September and Silver 10" is a market consensus. According to the August Home Buyers and Brokers Confidence Index, the home buyers confidence index was 98.4, down 2.7% from the previous month; the broker confidence index was 105.3, down 6.3% from the previous month.
People's Daily: “金九”失色,杭州二手房价开跌
September is about to pass, and for the second-hand housing market, the cold "Golden Nine" means "Silver Ten" or no longer. According to the data of the transparent home sales network, as of 21:00 on the evening of September 26, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Hangzhou urban area (including Fuyang without Lin'an) was 2,718 sets, a decrease of 32% from August, and the volume in September will be It is almost an indisputable fact that the new low in six months.

  After the volume fell to the bottom, the price of second-hand housing also began to loosen. The reporter interviewed the relevant person in charge of the second-hand housing intermediary stores in Hangzhou, and found that the average transaction price of second-hand housing in most sectors fell by 5% to 10%, and even more than 30% in individual communities. Jing Haiyan, chief analyst of Zhejiang Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that when the market started to decline, such a decline was “somewhat amazing” and it was worthy of attention.
Wall streetcn: 楼市“转折点”来了?房子降价、打折、促销!这些人却不高兴了...
Ouyang Jie, vice president of Xincheng Holdings, told the 21st Century Business Herald:

"From the internal communication situation of the developers, everyone has noticed two signs of adjustment in the market: first, the increase in promotional activities; second, the increase in land auctions. For the indicators of next year, some developers have indicated that they will no longer increase their growth."
Developers are slashing prices to move inventory. One anecdote:
“Our project marketing has always been a high-end route. At the beginning of the project, the average selling price was 20-22 thousand yuan/square meter, but the real average selling price was about 19,000 yuan/square meter.

During this Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, we will take out a certain type of building for a promotion, and the price is about 15,000 yuan / square meter.

Although the price is reduced by 4,000 yuan / square meter, but we are also very demanding payment methods for customers, requiring a full payment in one lump sum. ”
Developers may have to give the discount to current owners as well:
But what bothered him was that the price reduction of the Hefei yard attracted the dissatisfaction of the old owners. For the rights protection behavior of the old owners, the plan given by Hefei Yard is that the old owners can choose to check out to re-purchase the promotional listings, but the full amount must be paid.
Developers are focused on survival and return of capital:
“Live” and “Safety First” have become the most important demands of real estate enterprises.

This reflects that the property market is that developers have begun to pay attention to cash flow returns. This does not rule out the way to cut prices.
Some analysts are calling the turn:
Yang Hongxu, dean of the Yiju Institute, believes that September and October are the turning points of the decline of the market. Large-scale enterprises have increased their discounts in new markets , including Country Garden, Vanke, Poly, Evergrande and Jindi, all of which are multi-city joint promotion in many cities across the country. This is the sign and signal that the market is obviously cooling down. It is expected that the next two or three years will be the process of down, adjustment and bottoming.

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