2016 Home Price Forecast: Top Two Tiers Up 10%, Bottom Two Down 5%

CICC Research is forecasting a 10% rise in first- and second-tier city home prices for 2016, with third- and fourth-tier cities to prices fall 5%. Although prices are forecast to rise, sales are forecast to be flat. Limited supply and rising land prices will lift home prices, along with a boost from easy money.

Inventories have been coming down (first, second and third tier cities from left to right):

Land sales are still down in first- and second-tier cities:

This chart shows the rising cost of land, specifically the cost of land sold versus the cost of land for surrounding buildings on sale. The cities from left to right are Guangzhou, Shanghai, Xiamen, Beijing, Suzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Tianjin, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Dalian.

Specific city forecasts:
In 2016, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, Nanchang, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou are most likely to perform better.

The expected decline or rise in inventory in 2016. The cities on the right are Chengdu, Shenzhen, Hohhot and Qingdao.

Real estate forecast to sell 1 billion square meters per year through 2022. Reality will be more volatile.

iFeng: 2016年一二线城市房价涨10% 三四线下跌5%

No comments:

Post a Comment