Analysts Putting Numbers to China's Economic Plans: Deficit Above 3%, Tax Cuts to Exceed 1% of GDP

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance and Economics Strategic Research Director Wang Dehua financial audit on the "First Financial Daily" reporters, said the rate of break 3% budget deficit next year is feasible, the so-called 3% deficit rate red line is nonsense.

Associate Professor, School of Public Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Finance and Zhengchun Rong told reporters that next year the deficit ratio is likely to exceed 3%. Because the current rapid decline in revenue, while the rigid expenditure diminished, the active fiscal policy to increase the intensity of the background, the deficit expanded imperative.

UBS Securities "issued in 2016 set the tone for China's economic policy" ("the UBS report"), said the deficit could increase to more than 3%, while quasi-fiscal (such as policy banks loans) will continue to overweight.
UBS reports according to estimates, in 2016 camp changed to increase the size of about 383.6 billion yuan tax, social security tax costs associated with the size of about 240.3 billion yuan, tax cuts and then count the small and micro enterprises and other projects, in 2016 the total tax scale about 743.7 billion yuan, accounting for GDP (gross domestic product) is about 1.1%.
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