PBoC Fourth Quarter Surveys Are Out: Chinese Workers Aren't Optimistic

Depositor Survey: 2015年第4季度城镇储户问卷调查报告
Banker Survey: 2015年第4季度银行家问卷调查报告
Business Survey: 2015年第4季度企业家问卷调查报告

Every single category in the business survey deteriorated. The first category, macroeconomic conditions is already very low. Business confidence, the second number, fell below 50% for the first time since 2012.

For the bankers, there's a ray of hope in easy money. Monetary policy approval jumped markedly in the fourth quarter. Loan demand edged up a tenth of a point and loan approval moved higher. Manufacturing and services loan demand fell; it also fell across all firm sizes.
Employment satisfaction and confidence fell. The blue line shows current job satisfaction and the red line is expected satisfaction. Not a lot of change, but a downward trend.
The more important chart is the one for wages. Same color scheme: blue current wage satisfaction, red expected. A majority of workers are no longer confident in their future wages, and while they've always been somewhat unsatisfied with their wages, dissatisfaction stepped up in the past year.
This drop in wage confidence did not show up in the consumption/saving/investment survey, which shows a continued trend of increasing consumption since 2010.

In October, I wrote Chinese Recession Ready to Move Into Services and this survey reflects what I wrote there. Chinese workers sense trouble on the horizon and its reflected in their concern about their wages. This lack of confidence is the result of cases such as this one that was reported in September: Solar "Reshuffling," AKA Bankruptcy, Accelerates in China; Late Wages and Disguised Layoffs at Yingli. With the government focused on overproduction and listing the various industries suffering from it, any worker in those sectors will not be confident about the year ahead.

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