5 Key Words to Watch In Housing Policy

Yang Hongxu, Deputy Director of E-House China R&D Institute (上海易居房地产研究院) speculates on what the central government will cook up in the way of real estate policy.

He writes that the Central Economic Work Conference often mentioned real estate in prior years, often related to reducing speculation. It didn't mention it in 2013 and 2014 and local governments began to relax policy. This year there will likely be an explicit call to relax policies.

The government canceled welfare housing to create a new growth sector in the face of the Asian Crisis of 1997 and 1998. It launched the massive stimulus of 2008 which fueled housing. This time, the residential housing Golden Age is over. Demand is mostly satisfied and in first- and some second-tier cities seeing sharp price increases, the public will oppose easing policies.

The five keywords he's expecting are: reduce inventory, housing consumption, affordable housing and shantytowns, housing system reform (such as MBS, social welfare policies), long-term effectiveness.
1, go inventory. Central Financial Work Leading Group meeting in November this year, put forward four fight "war of annihilation", including the "resolve the real estate stocks, promote the sustainable development of real estate." Therefore, the possibility of a news release that the maximum sentence appears.

2, housing consumption. When Premier Li Keqiang noted that the main State Council executive meeting in November this year, in order to accelerate the reform of the household registration system led to housing consumption. Last October the State Department had also requested focus on promoting the six major areas of consumption, including: stable housing consumption, strengthening the protection of housing construction, relax reserve fund to pay the rent conditions.

3, housing security and shantytowns. In recent years, the Central and the State Council, involving integrated participating member economies of the meeting, will be mentioned more housing security. Another focus is the shantytowns. Thirteen Five planning requirements increase urban shantytowns and rural and urban reconstruction efforts. Preliminary estimates from 2015 to 2020 the country needed 27 million renovation of dilapidated buildings in rural areas. Housing renovation Thus, county, rural, town area, but also an important task in the coming years.

4, the housing system reform. Thirteen Five plan proposed: Deepening the reform of the housing system. The author analyzes the core of the housing reform is sound housing supply dual track: housing and affordable housing. The future direction of reform include: finance, fund system must be reformed to establish housing policy banks to promote mortgage asset securitization (MBS); for migrant workers, as long as the permanent staff, have a residence permit, they should live according to their age, social security etc. enjoy varying degree of housing security; improve urban renewal (old change, shed change, city reconstruction) policies.

5, real estate long-term mechanism. April this year, the Politburo meeting request: To improve the market environment, revitalize the stock of assets, long-term mechanism to establish the healthy development of real estate. Previous dates back to last March, "national new urbanization plan (2014- 2020)," in reference to: improve the real estate market regulation and control long-term mechanism. It includes four main policy tools: housing, land, taxation, finance.
He closes by saying he doesn't expect a clear policy. Instead, it will be left to the various ministries and local governments to come up with policies.

iFeng: 第99期:关于房地产的五个关键词

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