Signs of the Top: ZeroHedge Cucks

ZH: VIX 19.90...

How can you be short when economic surprises move higher? That is probably a question many PMs were asked yesterday by their CIOs. Anyway, Citi's economic surprise indicator is a "lagging" indicator, but many still watch it and use it as "fundamental" trading input. The move higher in CESI US since Sep is the largest move higher since the post corona top.

Yes how?

Do we need to consolidate here? After the 200 handles round trip most people are feeling "tired". SPX is at the big 4700 resistance right here. A break above it and the 4750 is the next big level to watch. First support is at 4650, but the question is does this market need to range for a bit here? VIX has crashed since panic highs, but remains elevated. Do we need the market to chill for a bit and a vol puke to follow before any new meaningful direction takes place? After all, people are still long tons of protection that is becoming worthless by the minute... Tightening tantrums happen every cycle... ... with a 10% correction, but the market bounces back (ex 73) withing a few months. Chart and table need little commenting...

Exluding 1973, when the market fell 46 percent in less than 2 years. I posted on that in Inflation Bu Hao. how about April 1976?

Does that look like a bullish setup? If you're trading by the day or week sure. If you're looking at the longer-term and the background macro...