Updated: Energy Maybe Yes, Thanks OPEC

I have no directional view on energy at the moment, but XLE is hitting a resistance line.

It will take a failed breakout in crude to get this going. If that happens and QT2 is the driver, the $70 strike July puts on USO don't look terrible as a lotto play.

Update: I put on the $70 strike for 60 cents and looking to add shorter term XLE puts.

Update 2: Oil Prices Tumble On OPEC-Russia Reports

...some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending Russia’s participation in an oil-production deal as Western sanctions and a partial European ban begin to undercut Moscow’s ability to pump more, OPEC delegates said.

Exempting Russia from its oil-production targets could potentially pave the way for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other producers in OPEC to pump significantly more crude.

This hasn't killed the possibility of oil breaking out, but it did reverse the breakout for today and produced an ugly candle if prices hold down here.