It's Happening: Gold-Copper Signals Economic Contraction Underway

Stagflation or deflation, it doesn't matter. If gold is outpacing copper, it tells us real money is gaining in value. If deflation, losses in commodities such as copper will dwarf losses in gold. Smart money will accumulate precious metals in anticipation of the next round of bailouts and inflation. If stagflation, money will exit productive activity as uncertainty rises. Supply chain disruptions will grow and so on. Money will accumulate in gold for years to come. Ultimately, the only way to stop the stagflation is deflation anyway, delivering the spike peak as we saw in the early 1980s. What I can't say for certain yet it whether this is the big one or not, but I'm operating on the assumption this is the big one. Assuming this is not another blip move like in 2020, 2018, 2016, 2011, but something more signficant. For trading, it doesn't matter, but it is a helpful piece of a large macroeconomic thesis that informs other trades.

No comments:

Post a Comment