2022-05-09

Watching Bonds

Assuming Cramer is a contrarian indicator, is this a reason to go long stocks or to fear financial apocalypse? Is he overly bearish stocks and buying bonds, marking a bottom in stocks, or is he far too bullish on the financial system, both bonds and stocks about to plummet into a black hole?
Here is 30-year treasuries and the S&P 500. Same general direction since April 2021. My view is nothing changes until bonds and equities separate. They could rally together, but unless there's a disinflationary black swan, it won't last. I expect a stock market bottom will be marked by bonds rallying and stocks falling, finally making stocks oversold relative to bonds. This is what I am looking for as a signal of bullish capitulation.

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