2022-05-17

The Fed Doesn't Have Control

If energy and commodities don't stop rising, if bonds don't rally, then the stock market collapses in all scenarios. It doesn't matter what the Fed does. The Fed cannot save the stock market unless it can permanently kill commodities inflation. Since green regulations and ESG have created a sticky rise in prices and supply is still constrained, there's nothing the Fed can do. Their hands are tied. Economic activity will collapse. The bullish scenario is that commodity inflation implodes as in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2020.

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