I Hope Profit Finds You, JPY Edition

The puts I bought on JPY futures are now up 70 percent after two days (three by the calendar). I outlined the trade here: The Path to 175 Opens on USDJPY I managed to get a small amount of calls on YCS, those are up 160 percent and 120 percent, but too small to be meaningful for my portfolio. (Update: I bought those calls on Friday last week, so they have had more time on their side. But I do think YCS OTM calls will offer a better upside if you can get those illiquid suckers.)

I'm in it for a big win, but I wanted to point out this profit because a lot of short-term traders would be very happy with a 70 percent gain in a few days. I'm usually not very good on short-term timing; I chalk this up to luck.

The yen could reverse if deflation hits. This chart looks like it could exhaust at any time. This move also makes me wonder if currency crisis and phase-change is coming to the financial markets. Normally, I'd see this chart and think exhaustion, but there are times when relationships breaks loose establish a new trend/correlation/relative valuation. That's where the potentially big money can be made because most of the market isn't looking for it. If I was a short-term trader though, I'd be looking to protect profits with QT and a possible sinking in crude prices looming. plus the fact that I'm posting this, makes me think a pullback to at least the latest breakout area is probably incoming. My puts are in November though, plenty of time for me.