2016-07-10

This Signals China's Housing Market Already Peaked

This article originally published by Xinhua discusses decelerating price and sales gains, and also the latest CASS research (CASS Warns of Housing Slowdown). It goes on to say:
So, I have repeatedly stressed that "the real estate market inventory destocking" is entirely a false proposition. Over the years, some of the functions of government departments in addition to manufacturing some paradoxical concepts and policies, seems it is very hard to have good judgment towards the market, and to develop good policy to let Chinese real estate market is stable and healthy development. On the contrary, they set policies so that the domestic real estate market is more complicated and confusing. For example, the development of the purchase restriction policy is the case. These policies make China real estate market, real estate took the hard road out of the woods. China's real estate market this year is also the case.

More importantly, from the recent domestic employment situation, it means that house prices will fall next. Guidepoint international Consulting recently through the analysis of various industries large employment data, released a report on China's employment market. Kaibo consultation found that since the beginning of 2013, the real estate market trend and the trend in real estate industry employment in six months is similar, but employment opportunities are forward-looking about six months. According to the study, Chinese real estate market brokers new jobs peak has passed, which means that house prices will fall next. Guidepoint data analysis team leader Erik Haines said: "If this trend continues, the recent decrease in new jobs may suggest China's housing prices will start to fall." This time probably has come.

...In short, the job market's message has been sent an important signal to the Chinese real estate market, prices of short-term adjustment will start. Because, when residents reduced employment opportunities, income decline, more and more incapable of entering the housing market. The construction of housing and real estate market too much, population growth declined, real estate companies and other closures imminent. These and more are coming China will strengthen the real estate market adjustment.

iFeng: 国内房价已发出了开始下跌的信号 你发现了吗

English here: Something very worrying seems to be happening in China’s jobs market

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