Catalonia Still Moving Towards Secession

Guardian: Separatist movement in Catalonia steps up battle with Madrid
The separatist movement in Catalonia’s parliament has escalated its battle with Madrid after it defied Spain’s constitutional court by debating a controversial pro-independence roadmap, and the region’s president announced a confidence vote to consolidate the move towards sovereignty.

The angry, last-minute debate – in which the pro-independence Together for Yes coalition and the smaller, far-left Popular Unity Candidacy secured approval for the unilateral disconnection plan by 72 votes to 11 – represents another open challenge to the Spanish judiciary and to Spain’s acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy.

It also provoked a furious reaction in the Catalan parliament from Ciudadanos and Popular party MPs who left the chamber rather than take part in a vote they described as “illegal” and flagrantly undemocratic. One Ciudadanos MP accused the separatist faction of “wanting to take us not only out of Spain and the EU, but out of the 21st century and modern democracy”.

...“The Spanish government uses the question of legality a lot,” he said. “But legality is an instrument; it needs to adapt to reality and to democratic will, and not the other way round. People around the world need to understand that what we’re doing is fundamentally legitimate and is not illegal.
One cannot be pro-democracy and anti-secession and remain consistent. If the will of the voters is sovereign, secession is legitimate. It cannot be stopped by the EU or the United States. If negative mood continues for another couple of decades, a shock break up of the United States would not be out of the question.

Fortune: In Politically Polarized U.S., State Secession Talk Gains Steam
Texas, which was an independent republic before joining the U.S. Texas holds a strong state identity and more conservative ideology than much of the rest of the country. With a higher per capita income than the rest of the nation, Texans can make an economic argument that they’re contributing more to the union than they’re receiving. “The main dampening factor is that Texas has contributed so many presidents that it’s hard to say they’re discriminated against, when they have so much political influence,” Sorens notes.

Vermont’s secessionist movement, the Second Vermont Republic, contributed candidates for governor and state Senate in 2010. The movement was launched when Vermont separated from New York in the 1700s. “The most interesting secessionist movement in the country is Vermont,” says Sanford Levinson, a law and political science professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Levinson notes the state’s history of independence and that one of the movement’s leaders wrote the book Secession: How Vermont and All the Other States Can Save Themselves from the Empire.

Alaska, oil-rich like Texas, has historically contributed more financially to federal coffers than it has received. And it’s the only state that hosts a secessionist movement with its very own political party: the Alaskan Independence Party. In 1990, the party won control of the governor’s mansion but didn’t push for secession from the union.

New Hampshire receives only 70 cents in federal spending for every dollar it sends to D.C. A strong libertarian base is driving the state’s secessionist movement, which is larger than Vermont’s but still small. “There is an economic case for independence because of the fiscal numbers, but there’s not nearly the cultural basis you might have in Vermont or Texas,” Sorens says.

Hawaii boasts a culture distinct from the mainland, which has driven its secession movement in the past. But the state has become more diverse amid rising immigration from Japan. “There’s a little movement in Hawaii,” Sorens says. “Only a small minority of residents has native Hawaiian ethnicity.”
American secession movements aren't as developed as in Catalonia or Quebec. Catalonia is almost guaranteed to secede if social mood remains negative for a few more years. An exit by states such as Scotland, Quebec and others is next highest probability, followed by a breakup of Belgium, and then the various areas with nascent secession talk such as in the United States and Italy.

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