China's Homebuying Population Gets Older, Smaller

iFeng: 楼市噩梦或来临：需要买房的人群数量在变少

A few years ago, Tokyo suburb, when a landlord tenant came to visit him, found a skeleton lying shrinking rental house that tenants had died three years.

Not a neighbor found him missing, his bank has to pay a fixed rent, until his account was no money left. The landlord can not collect rent due to check, only to see the terrible scene.

In the coming decades, with the rise of the ratio of the elderly population, many cities may occur such a situation.

...Former Guotai Junan chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping says that the real estate cycle is much a part of the population cycle, the number of births leads the number of housing starts by 20 years, the 20-50 years age group of homebuyers reached an inflection point in 2014, typical of the era after the real estate is "the total amount of slowdown, structural differentiation."

This sentence is translated, homebuyers have become less and less, but in the first-tier and other cities there is a housing shortage.

The problem in a nutshell:

Therefore, "aging society" to the real estate made a lot of difficulties, demand for housing for the elderly because of less and less, and buying a house for the new generation, is still uncertain.

But let the state also think of a phenomenon: two years ago, called a "" 90 "simply did not buy a house," the speech PPT widely circulated, followed by "selling sex toys," the 90 entrepreneurs Reds Ma Jiajia become a celebrity, and became popular in the eyes of developers.

The top cities will soak up young people and have housing pressure, while the dearth of buying caused by both population decline and continued falling fertility, will land mostly in smaller third- and fourth-tier cities.