2016-05-18

Bear Market Rally Over, Yuan Set to Tumble as Fed Fuels Dollar Rally

ZH: FOMC Minutes Show Cornered Fed "Likely" To Hike Rates In June

Rate hike odds in June have soared from 4 percent to 30 percent in a couple of days. Market still doesn't believe a hike is coming, but if Dudley and Fischer signal hawkishness tomorrow, the odds could climb above 50 percent.

Based on the Fed statement and assuming no significant deterioration in data, a June rate hike is a certainty based on the Fed's own words:
Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.
This hasn't stopped the Fed from going back on its word before. At this point, the bank has little credibility left, so anything is now possible.

Plus, a nice dip in the yuan, selling of commodities and Chinese equities might convince the Fed not to hike. The ChiNext analog is still very much in play.

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