2022-10-28

Almost Time to Close All Shorts...Or Is It?

Am I closing my shorts yet? No, and I still have cash looking to open.

My view is diesel is up 40 percent in a month, oil still high, markets are showing they are still filled with crack-addled speculators who will throw their inflated cash into stocks at the first whiff of a Fed pause, let alone a pivot. Gold is moving like it wants to crash too:

Days like today hurt, but it also makes me even more pessimistic about this bear market and its impact on the United States. The bubble in stocks wasn't as extreme as the dotcom bubble, but in my opinion, the economic situation is far worse. The 2000 market top was a big one, but it was concentrated in the technology sector. The Federal Reserve was overly aggressive and helped create conditions for a housing bubble that ultimately led to a lower stock market low in 2009. They've been insanely aggressive since 2009 and went nuts in 2020. This produced a profound sentiment shift among investors. Sentiment surveys ymay say bearish, but I don't think there are any real bears out there. Investors are valuing stocks on peak earnings, assumption of resuming earning growth, assumption of a return to low interest rates and so on. If I'm wrong, point out some examples not named Hussman or Druckenmiller. I keep coming back to charts such as corporate profit margins, which hit 16.5 percent
Long story short, I shorted more. I'm out of firepower unless I close other positions now.

1 comment:

  1. you should look at oil seasonality when shorting

    ReplyDelete