Election Comment

I bought some GOP Congress contracts in the prediction market sometime early last year I think. I see orders in May and August 2021. I tried putting in large bids, but didn't get filled. I have GOP Congress and a smaller amount of Republican Senate contracts.

This year it looked dicey for Republicans. They're still on the outside looking in on the Senate. The House also looked weak for awhile with a potentially very small lead for the GOP. That has changed in recent weeks.

I don't like polling after the experience of the past few years, but one can glean something from the trend in the polls. Even biased polls with large Democrat samples, for example, will show movement towards or away from one side. As long as they aren't hyper-biased polls that goal seek results. With that in mind, look at the toss-up category. There are 35 toss up seats and of those, only 6 are Republicans. If this is a wave election, the GOP could sweep most of those seats and pick up some lean Democrat seats. Odds are the House is a win.

The Senate looks dicier, but if the House breaks big for the GOP, the tight Senate races should break for the GOP. However, the Democrat toss-up seats are all in very favorable territory or with very weak GOP candidates. I see a path for 51 Democrat Senators as well as 51 GOP Senators if AZ, NC and PA go to the GOP. WI is also considered a toss-up, but I don't think it will be. The two I'm doubful of are NC and PA, and those are the two swing seats. The Democrats could maybe get to 53 if the polls are wrong or maybe if you believe in election fraud, but I see that as a stretch. On the other side, the GOP could theoretically run the table on the 7 tossups and end up wtih 54 Senators, but that's also a stretch requiring polls being way off on the size of the wave.

No matter the result, I expect dysfunction in DC. GOP warmongers will probably be sending more cash to the Ukraine. My only hope is that candidates such as Masters and Vance win, and then become extremely vocal leaders who can pressure the party into changing policy. Perhaps they would also shame a backbone into some of the Democrats who are anti-war.