2022-10-20

Everybody is Dip Dip Buying

Another major bank, JPM, out with a buy-the-dip call. I noticed a few days ago that bulls (pretty much everyone is a bull whether they admit it or not) were psychologically drained. Either explicity or implicitly admitting this in posts. As a bear, you may experience the opposite of euphoria as the market drops and raises your account value, but bear markets are inherently stressful for everyone. Perhaps the best analogy for a 5-wave down bear market is a hockey game with 3 periods and 2 intermissions. I'm not sure this is intermission though...

For today, 3680 is the line for bears, the chart is very clear. 3720 looks like an immediate resistance area, but if that breaks, the 3750 area is where bulls must pierce to have hopes of a larger rally.

I closed out energy shorts yesterday, taking a cue from Tim Knight. I'm about even on trades with USO puts winning and XLE/COP puts losing. I would prefer energy drop not only because it will be a great short, but the economy could really use the wind coming out of inflation's sails. I may be a bear, but I'd much prefer a deflationary crash scenario because it will be brief and cleansing. If instead the dollar tops out and crude speculators pile in, then the economy is well and truly screwed along with all retirees and investors. We'll be talking about 10 percent CPI and 10 percent yield on the 10-year treasury before long.

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