Bulls Want to Go Back, But We Only Go Forward

My expectation coming into today was that I either short again on a bounce or have to wait to short as the market drops. There's the PCE bounce on the release. I thought the numbers could come in lower, but they are in line with the market consensus. That is negative overall because according to the Cleveland Fed, inflation accelerated in October (confirmed by the rebound in commodities). Also, Cleveland Fed was looking for a lower number and was wrong. Their models have been biased on the underside lately, and they're already seeing faster price increases in October.

The peak conditions for peak stock prices are in the past. Not only is the bull market dead, but the future bull market will be a totally different animal. Bulls are still clinging to hopes of pivots, blaming the Fed for hiking rates and so on. They are going to keep being sucked into dip buying until they realize it's over. Then we can see a capitulation wave down, probably not the final one either. I suspect that wave is already underway with BigTech earnings coming in weak.