We Have a Ding

ZB hit my measured move target today, based off the non-lockdown peak. On many charts, but not all, I ignore both the March 2020 panic move and also for commodities, the Russian war spike. These can't be wholly discounted, but since they were such brief moves, I treat them as low information unless they fit into a pattern. One way it could fit in would be a mirror spike down in market panic. That would take ZB down to the 113 area.

A similar move in TLT would take it to the $90 area.

I have talked about that target before. Here on August 31:

With the caveat, if bonds continue lower, a breakdown in ZB and breakout in 30-year yield correlates with about 5 percent interest. That isn't a crazy target when considering the Federal Reserve is talking about a 4-percent Fed Funds rate. I do expect deflation and a rally in long bonds, but if I'm wrong, it isn't a wild target. It would take ZB and TLT back to 2007 levels of around 110 and $90 per share. Note that TLT is dividend adjusted, remove that and you will see TLT at $90 when the yield was around 5 percent.

I'll also not that the new buzzword from Fed watchers is a 5 percent Fed funds rate.