Great Signal for a Top: MSTR Doomed Again

I've had a very nice year shorting growth stocks and assorted trash. Microstrategy hasn't cratered yet, but it figured into the overall picture.

Cycles: MicroStrategy Back Again has all the info. MicroStrategy stock soared into the top of the dotcom bubble, they bought a Superbowl ad, and then they imploded on missed earnings and restatements. At the top of the crypto bubble, CEO Saylor has even more attention than he did in 2000, the stock performance is similar and the stock itself is supported by a similarly flimsy model. In 2000, they were hit along with the sector when regulators became critical of their accounting practices. This time there isn't any claims of fraud or skirting accounting rules that I've seen. Instead, it's a straight leveraged fund model. MSTR issues debt to buy BTC bitcoins. If BTC goes up they make money. If BTC goes down?

MicroStrategy Announces First Quarter 2022 Financial Results

Loss from Operations and Net Loss: Loss from operations for the first quarter of 2022 was $170.0 million compared to $183.2 million for the first quarter of 2021. Net loss for the first quarter of 2022 was $130.8 million, or $11.58 per share on a diluted basis, as compared to $110.0 million, or $11.40 per share on a diluted basis, for the first quarter of 2021. Digital asset impairment charges of $170.1 million and $194.1 million for the first quarter of 2022 and 2021, respectively, were reflected in these amounts.

Interest rates are going up and MSTR has impaired its balance sheet. All it would take to crater MSTR's stock is a drop in Bitcoin. It doesn't have to go to zero either, any substantial drop below their buy price will hammer their balance sheet. In fact, if BTC loses the $24,000 level which is all but assured in my opinion:

MSTR in 2000. Pay attention to the blue horizontal at the gap.

Here's a zoom out and then zoom in to now.

I see stock price history repeating. How about you?