Socionomics Alert: America Comes Unglued

Robert Prechter made 100 predictions in 2003 based on the coming downturn in social mood. A lot of his economic predictions proved wrong to this point, as the central bankers were able to mitigate the depression in financial markets, but in regards to culture and politics:

22. Social groups, including economic, political, religious, genders and classes, will polarize and splinter further. That is, they will polarize both internally and with respect to opposing groups.
23. The birth rate will continue to fall in the U.S. and Europe until the bear market in social mood (as indicated by the downtrend in stock prices) ends.
24. Religion will become increasingly popular. Its advocates will become increasingly passionate. Religious intolerance will increase.
25. Belief in magic will increase.
26. Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes.
27. Epidemics will increase in number and severity. Malaria will return to the U.S. Eventually, DDT will be re-legalized.
28. Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include suicide and torture.
57. Race relations will become strained and violent.
58. The suicide rate will go up.
59. Mob violence will break out more often than it did from 1982 to 2000.
60. Mass demonstrations, expressing anger with some social situation, will occur.
78. Affordable housing will become difficult to come by. Family members will move in with each other. Homelessness will increase.
79. China will have a severe economic setback along with the rest of the world, but it will be a “wave 2,” from which the country will emerge as the economic leader of the world.
80. Suspicion or hatred of foreigners will increase around the globe.
81. Nations will tend away from liberal, representative governments and toward dictatorships.
82. The Drug War will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized.
83. Government will ration goods and services in which it is or becomes involved (such as gasoline, vaccines, medical care, electricity, water, food, etc.)
84. International travel will be restricted, whether by statute or dangerous conditions.
85. The U.S. and state governments will finish their takeover and demolition of the medical industry.
86. Third parties will gain political clout and win local elections. Libertarians, greens and others will capture many local offices and probably at least one state government.
87. At least one of the two major parties will disappear or re-form.

The current decline in mood isn't over yet and the divergence between markets and mood cannot last forever. Either the mood turns up and confirms the market highs, or the market confirms the evidence from the rest of society: this is a depression.