Buying SOE Reform

EO: 赌错?国企改革下的市场逻辑

Analysts discuss the prospects of betting on SOE reform.

Google translation of above article after the jump.

"Opinions" issued short-term boost to the stock market is not, there is a certain strong relationship with the wait and see mood the moment. The previous week, the market volume declined significantly, waiting to see atmosphere. Private equity investment Suzaku think the day is not the actual market crash cause too unexpected, since the previous week, the market in 3200 struggled to find direction from top to bottom, the market divergence, multi-day rally is not broken.

Weifeng Chun, general manager of Boshi macro strategy at that in the short-term impact on the market, due to concern about the long-term state-owned enterprises are at high levels, and have been more different understanding quite cured, plus top-level planning itself is the result of the parties to weigh It is not the introduction of market upward or downward trend is likely to form.

Some market participants believe that the central enterprises reform would be positive for stocks already pre-digestion is completed, the main opportunity after the program was announced substantial shipments.

In fact, in August, the market is expected to SOE reform has been significantly reduced. "Opinions" is expected to repair is considered expected. The introduction of top-level design will greatly accelerate the pace of reform in the country.

Most people believe that the public offering, reform and innovation has been an important theme of the market. Shares section of SOE reform may be lower than expected, but the overall direction of reform has not changed, so SOE reform stocks still have some upside.

But, now a good time to fry the concept of SOE reform has not yet six months in the capital markets to the development effort.

For now, the excess liquidity-driven bull market has ended. Specifically, the macroeconomic situation, ongoing deleveraging, economy has not yet bottomed out OK, the market will continue to maintain a high probability the shock box. Dacheng Fund believes that the current market liquidity is insufficient to support the reform of state-owned enterprises, a number of strategic goals along the way, Peoples entrepreneurship, market sentiment turns for the better unless new money to enter.

Market from early June 2015 to the present, also fell almost 3 months, and the whole big grind almost 40% 申万宏 source also pointed out that the recent reforms and new economic catalyst more, but to restore market confidence will take time to complete the catalyst The continued accumulation.

申万宏 source believes that industrial capital is still constrained behavior, IPO pause, refinancing is limited, but the subsequent relaxation of industrial capital still may have a negative impact on the market, be concerned about the September-December period set by the peak of restricted shares lifted the market in years Shock.

In addition, a certain deterioration in the supply of funds. Transaction settlement fund balance scale is still large, but the marginal reduction; new Development Fund size style cliff fall, the venue of the two financial leverage reduction initiative, with the capital has also been off inventory impact.

Private equity investment Suzaku think, it is expected to advance the future with supporting details, and local state-owned enterprises reform, the topic still has some continuity.

After the state-owned enterprise reform program came out, Han Yun Chun Hung fund managers believe that the future will be through the SOE reform is a hot topic of the stock market one to two years, will be constantly repeated speculation. Of course, in the operation, with the proviso that must be combined with the broader market trend, band operation.

Despite the favorable policy of SOE reform in the first half frequent, but still difficult to impress the heart of some private persons. "Even if the whole market has pulled up, or growth stocks definitely better than the majority of state-owned enterprises reform of large blue-chip stocks." The theme of a private person in South China as one of the investment strategy of investment in the second half, but bypassed the state-owned enterprise reform.

Luo Yi, chief analyst at Huatai Securities believes that the estimated overall method by the end of 2014 all the A-share earnings of about 14.0, which is about 13.1 SOE earnings, the valuation is still at a low position. With the future of state-owned enterprises and other reform measures taken by mixed ownership, A shares of state-owned enterprises in terms of operational efficiency, profitability, resource utilization will have private, foreign side, the valuations improved accordingly.

Luo Yi pointed out that under the current situation of state-owned enterprises listed on the company's low valuation, and valuation of expected future upward trend, state-owned enterprises listed on the underlying logic of the high probability of being continued pursuit of capital markets. In particular, he stressed that the financial industry as the lifeblood of the national economy, is the highlight of this round of SOE reform.

Local state-owned enterprises more popular

Central enterprise reform is a top priority of the current round of SOE reform, six central enterprises as the reform have been achieved, from mid-July 2014, the central rate announced the first batch of pilot list so far, most of the gains of listed companies under the Group has more than six 2 times. After the "opinions" issued, Qilu Securities believes that the future of the country changed and business class enterprise reform at the local level will walk in the forefront of the market. GF Securities also noted that after the introduction of country-owned reform plan, the country will accelerate the reform of local state-owned capital operation management pilot worth the wait.

Local pilot landing is Guotai Junan Securities analyst Ren Zeping future Aspect eye. Ren Zeping think, about the stock market in 3000, the reform in line with expectations. Future Aspect in "N" sub-program, where the pilot landed the like.

Since October 2013 eighth session of the Third Plenary proposed a new round of SOE reform, from the central to the local state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises have gradually started reform, the SASAC central enterprises to promote reform "four reform" pilot, most of the provincial local government issued guide policy reform or reform began.

However, more needs to wait for practice. Many state-owned subsidiary of two, three subsidiaries completed a mixed ownership, while state-owned group still dominance, operating efficiency and social allocative efficiency are declining.

Analysts Luo Yi pointed out that the current round of SOE reform is initiated and "public ownership and non-public equally" important reforms conceptual basis "play a decisive role of the market in allocating resources" in eighteen large and clear on the Third Plenary Session, is this Government economic reform an important part of these groundbreaking governing philosophy of this decision with mixed ownership for the reform of the strength and depth keyword different from the past.

A market that, given the introduction of top-level design, post-bonus worth the wait; stocks, considered based on two regions Shanghai, Shenzhen, look for the assets of the most massive and the main industry weakness two types of companies.

SOE reform theme is the strongest market uncertainty, the highest attention to the theme, but in view of the characteristics of the market at present, Hai Tong Securities believes that funds focused on the reform of state-owned shares in favor of the Shanghai and Beijing, and is oversold stocks, small-cap, low price shares.

SASAC approved before obtaining GF Securities in Shenzhen were the key recommendation concerns.

GF Securities analyst Chen Guo believes that the current introduction of a "1", the state-owned enterprises to accelerate the need to wait for "N". Before landing rules, local state-owned enterprises is difficult to fully accelerate.

Fruit Chan further noted that the introduction of the top-level design process, SOE reform has been basically solved the core differences, the subsequent introduction of state-owned enterprise reform program will be more successful this time the capital market does not need to wait too long. "1 + N Currently SOE reform program '1' has landed, the next 'N' and the introduction of the introduction of the reform program over the rules will be the next stage of SOE reform Quotes catalyst."

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